July 20, 2024

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Tesla’s article-to-Cybertruck delivery ratio currently stands at 219 to 1

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Well, it’s finally here. Sort of. Tesla’s PS1-vector-styled memetruck is available to order now for $60,990 in its most basic form (though at that price it won’t be arriving until 2025 at the earliest and the optional extras include paint, floor mats and a ladder).

What Thursday’s Cybertruck launch did do was cause another glut of media stories about Cybertruck. For November Factiva logged 1,072 individual stories in the global English-language press, which made it the third most Cybertrucky month of the year to date:

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That’s 10,931 Cybertruck stories in the first 11 months of 2023 for . . . . how many Cybertrucks exactly? Here’s what Morgan Stanley expects.

We forecast 50 deliveries in FY23 followed by 30,000 units in FY24 and 78,000 units in FY25. Our ATP assumption starts at $90k and falls to $84k by 2025. We expect ‘Cybertruck’ will be supplemented by a range of ‘Rivian-looking’ pickups and SUVs in the latter part of the decade with a design language more consistent with prevailing Teslas.

Yep. Fifty. Year-to-date, that’s 218.62 stories per truck that might be delivered.

Based on the current run-rate the ratio might fall to 0.4 new stories per truck in 2024, though Tesla’s track record of meeting expectations has put some fairly wide error bars around that estimate.

We’re being facetious for a reason. The value to Tesla from making weird-looking novelties that people gawp at isn’t solely economic. It’s not economic at all, even at a starting price that’s 56 per cent higher than the one announced in 2019. Morgan Stanley again:

By 2025, we forecast Cybertruck will account for less than 5% of Tesla revenues and closer to 0% of profit. A part of Tesla’s brand allure…

2023-12-01 05:22:31

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