July 20, 2024

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Macron’s alliance ticks up in polls ahead of snap vote

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President Emmanuel Macron’s hopes of avoiding a wipeout in the first round of France’s snap parliamentary election received a boost when fresh opinion polls showed his centrist alliance gaining ground.

An IFOP poll for Le Figaro, LCI et Sud Radio, a new daily survey on Thursday put the centrists on 22 per cent for the first round vote on June 30, up from 18 per cent in a poll conducted on June 10-11. A Toluna Harris Interactive poll for Challenges, M6 and RTL put the alliance on 21 per cent.

Both polls predict the far-right Rassemblement National will be the clear winner, with 34 per cent according to IFOP and 33 in the Harris survey. The leftwing Nouveau Front Populaire bloc was at 29 per cent and 26 per cent respectively.

A third poll by OpinionWay on Friday put the RN on 35 per cent and the centrists on 20 per cent.

Seat projections by Harris suggest France is mostly likely heading for a hung parliament, which could lead to political gridlock.

The president’s alliance, which comprises Macron’s Renaissance party and two others, won 14.6 per cent in European parliament elections on June 9, coming third. That result prompted Macron to dissolve parliament in a shock move that stunned his allies and the country at large. Polls in the immediate aftermath of his decision showed his party languishing in the mid-teens.

Advisers to the centrist campaign and political analysts have warned that it was at risk of being squeezed out of the vast majority of second-round run-off places unless it started to gain traction by this weekend with polling support at least in the low-20s.

The surveys indicate that Macron’s camp has gained some momentum during the first official week of the campaign in which his standard-bearer, the outgoing prime minister, Gabriel Attal, has been omnipresent on television and in debates.

Macron’s allies this week have…

2024-06-21 05:59:39

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