September 18, 2020

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Isaias Continues to Move North-Northwestward Just Offshore of the East-Central Florida Coast : The Alabama Weather Blog

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SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…27.4N 79.7W
ABOUT 45 MI…75 KM ESE OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI…150 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday morning. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near the east coast of Florida today through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore the coast of Georgia into the mid-Atlantic states.

Data from the aircraft and the Melbourne, Florida, Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, the NOAA C-MAN station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, measured a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h), and a weather station at Sebastian Inlet, Florida measured a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 995 MB (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC…2-4 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight. These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina within the warning area on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in North Carolina on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical

Scott Martin


2020-08-02 14:05:18


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