Looking ahead, there is a decent chance that this tropical wave reaches the Bahama Islands and the Florida Peninsula by the second half of the weekend. Heavy rainfall is definitely on the table from this system for the Bahamas and at least parts of Florida, but it remains to be seen how impactful the winds will be as it’ll depend on its intensification over the next few days. By the latter part of the weekend, this system will begin to interact with an unusually strong upper-level trough that will be “digging” into the south-central US and slowing down in its progression to the east. As a result, the tropical system could begin to take a more northerly track and its moisture field could very well ride up along the US east coast in the early part of next week – potentially resulting in a significant rain event all the way from Florida to the Northeast US.
Stay tuned…until a well-defined center emerges, there will be lots of detail unable to be ironed out.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
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